FXUS62 KCAE 040730
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
230 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER 
OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH OF 
THE AREA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 
SUNDAY NIGHT. 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT EXPECT AN IN-SITU WEDGE PATTERN 
TODAY. THE NAM SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTS THE WEDGE FRONT 
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT CLOUDY 
SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE 
PATTERN. THE LIFT APPEARS WEAK SO EXPECT ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT. 

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT 
APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE WEDGE FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE 
AREA OR BECOME DIFFUSE. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THE DEEPEST 
MOISTURE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS 
THAN ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. BOTH MODELS KEEP THE STRONGER LIFT 
NORTH OF THE MAIN WARM FRONT WHICH STAYS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 
UPPER-LEVEL LIFT ALSO APPEARS WEAK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DAMPENS IN 
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING
WELL UPSTREAM IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS 
MORNING...BUT EXPECT THIS CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD BECAUSE OF DIMINISHING LIFT. EXPECT THE FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
BECOMING SHALLOW BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND MIXING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT. A WARM START AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS SUPPORT 
THE WARM TEMPERATURES SHOWN BY THE MOS FOR SUNDAY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRYING MAY OCCUR MONDAY. THE GFS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE LIFTING 
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. RIDGING MAY DOMINATE TUESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MAY BRING RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
MAINLY USED THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT OFF THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND CIG
HEIGHTS WILL LOWER AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING RESULTS IN THE SATURATING
OF THE LOWER LEVELS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS 12Z-18Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE...AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AT OGB. AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS TO OUR
NORTH BY AFTERNOON...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ONCE AGAIN AND
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT THE
TERMINALS AND THEREFORE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...JL
NEAR TERM...JL
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...HC